Economy, is often determined by the economic boom, recession, economic cycles, economic fluctuations and the good or bad of the concept.
In other words, the general economic conditions of the definition,
① economic growth rate
② corporate earnings
③ that is determined from the diffusion index is a normally. (From the economic math reference)
Definition of economy
The economy of the definition of economic growth rate,
The total added value of a country economy (① labor were people of wages and ② corporate profits)
The total amount of these two added value is counted as gross national product (GNP).
In addition, over the gross national product number of progress rate is two quarters of (GNP) (example January to March April to June)
If you become a negative, there are many view be regarded as a recession. (From the economic math reference)
In the case of the United States government, if the real economic growth rate was negative over two quarters,
It is definition and the economy is retracted.
Another is the definition of the economy due to corporate earnings.
This definition, booming economy if Nobile large compared to corporate earnings in the previous year, the previous year,
Big it is determined that the recession it falls below.
The definition of the economy due to this view, the definition of economic growth rate if the concept of macro,
A micro way of thinking.
Also this definition, even if the real economic growth rate has grown in comparison to the previous year, the previous year,
Corporate earnings is a negative economy, positioned to be a recession in the growing recession,
It has been interpreted.
In this way, to watch a measure of the economy determine corporate profits,
The is responsible for the majority of the changes in development of the economy is a company,
Movement of corporate earnings is based on the decision say that affect the business confidence.
Trend of corporate earnings, such as large automotive industry of industry linkage effect is important. (From the economic math reference)
If you look at the past, trends in corporate earnings, such as the automotive industry is important,
From gasoline vehicles and electric vehicles eventually, fly in the sky to the automobile (skycar)
The future of the future of the automotive industry, are still hidden demand.
In addition, the development of IT industry of software a variety of robot development, etc.,
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Land 29.2%, the global environment of the ocean 70.8%, ocean sea space, which accounts for 70% of the (70.8%)
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The third definition
The third definition is due to various economic mathematics of diffusion index.
Economic figures to recession economy than the economic boom,
In order to seize quickly the turning point towards the economic boom from recession
It has been created in each country.
Currently in Japan, the Cabinet Office (Cabinet Office Economic and Social Research Institute, the economic statistics unit) has announced creation.
Central government reorganization of its era
Along with the (1946 Economic Stabilization Board 1952 Economic Shingicho 1955 the Economic Planning Agency, 2001 Cabinet Office),
By age, (revised) of the diffusion index series, but there is also increased or decreased, the nickname change, etc.,
Described main series name (group) is shown below.
(1) index moving sensitive prior to the preceding series economy.
The leading index (leading index) indicates the economy of the movement of a few months away.
① final demand inventory ratio index (reverse)
② industrial production goods inventory ratio index
③ number of new job offers (excluding graduates)
④ real machinery orders (private demand, excluding shipbuilding and electric power)
⑤ new housing starts floor area
⑥ durable consumer goods shipment index
⑦ consumer confidence index
⑧ Nikkei Commodity Index (General)
⑨ long and short interest rate differential
⑩ Tokyo Stock Price Index
⑪ investment environment index (manufacturing industry)
⑫ small and medium-sized enterprises sales outlook D.I
The D.I, among the economic indicators that have adopted the (diffusion index, DI) index
Percentage of indicators showing economic expansion (the expansion).
(2) Coincident series match series economy of movement together show a reaction (match) thing.
Coincident index (coincident index) is, to show the current state of the economy.
① production index (mining and manufacturing)
② industrial production goods shipment index
③ large power usage
④ capacity utilization index (manufacturing industry)
⑤ overtime time index (manufacturing)
⑥ investment goods shipment index (excluding transport equipment)
⑦ commercial sales (retail)
⑧ commercial sales (wholesale)
⑨ Operating income (all industries)
⑩ small business sales (manufacturing industry)
⑪ ratio of job offers to job seekers (excluding graduates)
(3) lagging series an indicator that shows the delayed reaction to the movement of the lagging series economy.
Lagging index (lagging index), the reaction in the one-year delay from six months.
① tertiary industry activity index (Business services industry)
② regular employment index (manufacturing industry)
③ real Corporate capital investment (all industries)
④ household consumption expenditure (national workers' households, nominal)
⑤ corporation tax revenue
⑥ unemployment rate (reverse)
If the example increased compared to each of the numbers and the 3 months before the number + (plus), if reduced to (minus).
※ view of the preceding series ① final demand inventory ratio index and the lagging series ⑥ unemployment rate will be reversed.
In other words, the preceding series, mainly fluctuations in supply and demand, match series,
primarily the adjustment of production, lagging series is a series that shows the role of the adjustment of the main production capacity.
The idea, as a wide range of economic sectors ① production ② stock ③ investment
④ employment ⑤ consumption ⑥ corporate management ⑦ financial ⑧ price ⑨ Service
There is to look for indicators that satisfies the relationship like between the peaks and valleys of the corresponding level and the economic business cycle.
The selection criteria,
(1) economic importance
(2) degree of correspondence
(3) the stability of the time difference between the peaks and valleys of the economy of the continuity and reliability
(4) the number of times of the economic cycle of statistics
(5) Data of smoothness (6) there is a statistics of breaking resistance.
Then, trying to examine the wave of the economy of many industrialized countries.
Wave inventory cycle wave capital investment wave construction investment wave of the economy
The wave of the economy of the past of the industrialized economies,
There are three waves of 1 stock wave of wave 3 construction investment of wave 2 capital investment of circulation.
Wave of 1 inventory cycle
This wave (wave of inventory cycle) is,
Is the most short in what generally over one to two years.
When the economy pick up as the reason, at each stage of the retail, wholesale and manufacturing,
Movement to increase the stock is spread.
And, prone to excess inventory investment outweighed by the demand in this inventory investment.
This is, in each stage of the retail, wholesale and manufacturing,
So that we can support at any time to the client additional demand of,
Stock is because the work is the movement of the more original you say predict.
In addition, when the economy pick up, the probability of also soaring wholesale prices and labor cost increases,
There is the influence of consciousness work that'll keep previously purchased to create a mono to rise.
As a result of the economy has picked up, exceeding the increased demand, but the stock is a temporary demand,
Provisional demand is also a production pick up the waves.
However, soon after the stock has been accumulated in the stock demand, including the provisional demand is,
Elongation tends to decrease rapidly.
Here in inventory investment is gaining momentum, if unintended inventory had been increasing rapidly,
No longer must be reduced inventory, trends these is even if there is the end of the demand,
The demand for this end will be to respond by its stock.
A result, production will fall, leading to recession. (From economy mathematics)
2 The wave of capital investment
Second wave of capital investment, but over three to five years,
Just as is noted in this wave of capital investment, it is said to be 'investment is called the investment',
Capital investment of a certain industry, industrial supplies and materials and equipment on Keikizuke,
Capital investment of related industries is also to be active.
If capital investment should spread to Kaku industry, but would create a boom,
The problem with capital investment, in a competitive market, spreads out capital investment competition,
Certain to be easy to rise to over-investment.
When the spread is inflation mood in particular became a capital investment boom,
The introduction of a government is tightening policy is a problem.
A result, the aftermath of a large wave of recession from the booming economy emerge. (From economy mathematics)
3 wave of construction investment
The wave of the third construction investment is a wave of long-term spanning 8 to 10 years.
Also goes by the world 10 years, it varies greatly.
Also change the level of the economy, also changes the standard of living and the environment.
And, it also spreads movement to try to change a large building.
Also, change the industrial structure if Haitai also 10 years, as well as plant construction for the new industry,
Housing construction, which was in the new economy and income levels also will become popular.
A result, has also created a wave of economic construction investment.
Recession of the valley and the booming economy of the mountain when the mountain of the three waves overlap each reaches its peak.
(From economy mathematics)
Next, let's examine the 'supply and demand' of the economy.
The reason of economic fluctuations
Realistically, we suffer from excess inventory to not read the wave of the economy,
Companies that have losses are many.
The essence of economic fluctuations, Ikisugire if,
Then it is always essential that the rebound will come.
Economic boom due to excesses of stock prices and land prices,
Then it has always become the recession of overkill.
In addition, the basic of economic fluctuations is a point to say that is dependent to buy supply and demand that is and selling.
The economy is stable as long as the balance of the relationship between the selling and buying.
So that the swing big and that either one of them go too far.
For example, if the demand is so much greater than the supply, the economy is going to rise,
When the momentum to this rise overshoot, the economy will reach a sure processing aspects as the recoil.
In addition, there is also a reverse theory, the economy and the supply far exceeds the demand is falling,
When the economic measures to stimulate the demand is introduced by the government (such as the reduction of the discount rate),
Before long, the economy is going toward the rise. (From economy mathematics)
So, why? Whether the balance of supply and demand would collapse (collapsing)?
Balance collapse that ① investment fluctuation theory
There are mainly investment fluctuation theory on the factors of economic fluctuations.
Movement to corporate capital investment, and the like on the grounds that have a significant effect on the movement of the entire economy.
And that the company is to build a factory and offices, the introduction of machinery and equipment in the building,
Because you are very reached in huge numbers, the movement has a large impact on the economy as a whole.
In addition, investment begins once the investment is going toward expanding birth to investment.
a company that was contracted to this capital investment and A company makes a capital investment,
Not a few cases to expand their facilities.
Such a chain reaction to spread investment generates an investment, the circulation of produce.
As a result, the economy, towards the expansionary phase.
However, investment and capital investment are past the peak, go rapidly depressed.
Continue to sharply only to update investment to replace the old machinery and equipment with a new one,
Fall is the beginning of the economy, therefore, the balance of supply and demand is lost due to changes in investment,
The width of investment variation will depend on the magnitude of the investment boom. (From economy mathematics)
Balance collapse the ② consumption fluctuation theory
Next is the variation consumption fluctuation theory of personal consumption factors of economic fluctuations.
The proportion of private consumption, which accounts in the final purchase amount of the industrialized countries,
In 50% to over 60% (in the past, 70% in the US), accounting for a maximum of specific gravity as purchasing amount.
Consumer purchasing power of individuals, greatly exceeds the purchasing power of companies and the government and the foreigners,
Change of personal consumption, which accounts for a maximum of specific gravity, has given a strong influence on economic trends.
Economy is better if consumer spending Nobile large,
If the reverse is personal consumption Ochikome, but because they become a composition that the economy is bad.
Personal consumption is divided into durable goods (cars and home appliances) and non-durable goods (clothing and food),
For personal consumption of these non-durable goods (clothing and food) is, the context of the economic fluctuations is small.
For example, just because the economy has become bad, it is not extremely reduce it the number of times that individuals eat.
On the other hand, personal consumption of durable goods (cars and household appliances), the width of the fluctuation is very large.
Such as the automotive industry, consumer electronics industry in developed economies,
The proportion of the industry related to the production of durable goods (cars and consumer electronics products) is very large.
In other words, it will be heavily dependent on such Kaikae demand for durable goods (cars and consumer electronics products).
And, personal consumption of durable goods (cars and consumer electronics products) are repeated large fluctuations than expected.
In other words, consumers, durable goods if Idake the sense of insecurity with respect to the outlook for the economy
Kaikae has plummeted in the (passenger cars and home appliances),
Conversely Kaikae if Idake the expectations to the economic outlook is carried out as planned,
Economy becomes the economic boom, big rise.
Also a service that is growing specific gravity in personal consumption,
Between leisure-related services consumption expenditure with a focus on travel and food and drink is for the time being,
It will grow significantly. (From economy mathematics)
Balance collapse the ③ external shock theory
The third factor of economic fluctuations is an external shock theory.
Economy even balanced in investment and consumption,
By shock unexpected from the outside, there is a thing or to rise or fall.
August 1971, President Nixon of the United States, as a means of suddenly dollar defense,
Convertibility of the dollar and gold (convertibility) issued a statement to stop the gold standard.
It is the so-called Nixon shock.
In the background, military spending increase for the Vietnam War,
There has been a problem that the credit deterioration of the dollar was a factor and competitive decline of the American industrial products.
$ 1 = fixed rate of 360 yen demise, the world economy (especially Japan) is,
It was decided to give a big only the period to the total exports and the economy.
(Japan, experience also oil shock in 1973 - 1979)
These, the movement of particular interest in the external shock,
Is a major price movements in the stock and foreign exchange rates and major international product.
Constantly things that price movements by the supply and demand of the relationship (market) is,
Sensitive to external shock, it is excessively raised and lowered,
It has given a big impact on the psychology of consumers and entrepreneurs.
This is an external shock theory is making economic fluctuations. (From economy mathematics)
Balance collapse the ④ bubble asset fluctuation theory
Finally, changes in the money to make the economic fluctuation. It is the so-called bubble expansion and collapse of the bubble economy fluctuation.
Economy to grow, in proportion to the money management market to expand,
In the countries of economic fluctuations, it has been greatly affected by some countries of the assets.
The majority of previous money money management market is expanding, is used for transactions of goods and services,
It was moving toward the seller from the buyer of goods and services.
In other words, the money had been used as a closing means of goods and services.
However, expanding the economy, and also would like to rising income levels,
Individuals and companies is the bearer of the economy, a newly created mono and of the newly created service
The settlement and money began to be widely used in the means of exchange and other money.
It is an expansion of the so-called money management market.
The main pillar to mediate a deal of money and the money in the money management market, but stocks and land.
The important transactions of this stock and land,
So far was already stock and land are traded.
Trading of stocks and land, not that create added value,
The rise amount is exactly what a bubble. (From economy mathematics)
Rise these of the stock market of the shares of price increases or decreases and stock and land prices,
Decrease (the collapse of the bubble phenomenon), and has become a principle that market mechanisms.
As an economic recovery system from the three waves more
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